Data Scientists & Analytics
“Our model beats the baseline in backtesting. But is the test fair, or have we made the numbers look better than they are?”
Forecasting Sparring & Architecture
Independent forecasting judgment when the internal stakes are high.
An experienced outside perspective for teams that own their forecasting and want added confidence in a decision – without turning it into a full-blown project.
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Why the model is rarely the problem
When a forecast fails to deliver the expected impact, the algorithm alone is rarely to blame. More often, the issue lies in the data, the scope of the use case, the planning level, the KPI logic, overrides, exceptional effects, existing systems or the question of which decision the forecast is actually meant to support.
Data Science sees the model. Planning sees the process. IT sees the system.
Each perspective is valid, but none is complete. And the time to disentangle them carefully is usually in shortest supply precisely when a reliable answer is needed.
The greatest leverage often comes not from a better model, but from knowing sooner what is really driving the result.
Who it is for
Who is Forecasting Sparring designed for?
Four teams with different questions and the same need: an experienced outside perspective before a decision becomes expensive.
Demand Planners & S&OP
“Our planners override a large share of the forecasts. Is the problem the model or the process?”
Operations & Production
“Which levers can help us reduce lead times, bottlenecks, or quality risks?”
IT & Transformation
“Standard SAP IBP, a custom forecasting layer, or both? And where exactly should the boundary be?”
The forecaster in your expert sparring session
90 minutes with Thomas cannot replace a project. Sometimes, though, they can prevent the wrong one.
Dr. Thomas Christ, Chief Data Scientist, has shaped forecasting at prognostica since 2014. He steps in when the methodology really matters and gives you a well-founded, candid assessment. Because good data science takes more than methodology – it also takes the courage to reject the wrong solution early.
We will decide together how deep to go.Working together
How deep should we go?
Flexible formats are available: from a 90-minute session to in-depth methodology, use case or architecture checks and ongoing advisory support.
A short conversation will help us find the right format for you.
Select a format to see the details.
90 minutes
“We have a specific question and need a reliable assessment quickly.”
Before a steering meeting, before choosing a vendor, or before a model goes live: there is a question, and the answer has consequences.
- Format
- Expert Sparring – 90 minutes with Dr. Thomas Christ, our Lead of Consulting
- Outcome
- A clear assessment, a recommendation, and an honest answer as to whether more is needed.
“We are building it ourselves and want to know whether our approach is methodologically sound.”
The model runs and the numbers look good. But no one outside the team has challenged it yet: backtesting, feature leakage, granularity, bias, benchmarks, and explainability for the business.
- Format
- Method & Model Review – a structured review of your forecasting approach
- Outcome
- Prioritized findings, concrete recommendations, and a methodological judgment you can stand behind internally.
“We see several opportunities in our operations, but we do not know where forecasts or data-driven models can make a meaningful contribution.”
When lead times, bottlenecks, capacity, or quality risks need to be managed more effectively, we assess the business lever, the available data, and a meaningful baseline before time and budget are committed to an MVP.
- Format
- Use Case Check – a focused assessment of a clearly defined operational decision area
- Outcome
- A prioritized use case, a reliable assessment of the data situation, and a clear recommendation: reject it, investigate further, or start an MVP.
“Our planning needs to improve. But we do not know where the bottleneck is.”
Accuracy has stalled, every department has a different theory, and the next investment will be expensive – whether it is in data, models, processes, or systems.
- Format
- Architecture Check – a structured diagnosis across data, methodology, process, and system
- Outcome
- The actual bottleneck, a target architecture, and a basis for decision-making: use the standard, extend it, or build your own.
“We continuously develop our forecasting and want a regular outside perspective.”
The team is strong. Critical questions still arise – monthly, throughout a project, and before important decisions.
- Format
- Sparring Retainer – regular expert sparring, monthly or alongside a project
- Outcome
- A dedicated external sparring partner who knows your setup and does not have to start from scratch every time.
Not sure which level is right? That is exactly what the first sparring session will clarify. And if it turns out that you need more than sparring – such as complementary planning logic or AI Agents for Demand Review & S&OP – we will tell you that, too.
+10 %
forecast accuracy
Julius Blum GmbH · Hierarchical demand forecasting
The difference an outside perspective can make
Blum needed consistent forecasts across multiple hierarchy levels and more than two million planning objects. Together, we analyzed forecast accuracy at each level, suitable segmentation approaches, and patterns such as discontinued items or marketing effects. The resulting solution improved forecast accuracy at the highest aggregated level by 10 % compared with SAP IBP and can be fed directly into the planning system.
Read the success story“Your approach identifies aspects that we had never examined as critically before.”
Many can build models. Few understand planning.
Fewer still can bring both together; and that is exactly what a good review requires: methodology, planning practice, and systems considered at the same time. Internally, these three perspectives often sit in three departments. With us, they sit at the same table.
Forecasting excellence since 2014
Statistics, machine learning, foundation models, uncertainty, bias, and accuracy. We build forecasting solutions ourselves, so we know what breaks in production – not just what works in a paper.
Planning reality
Demand planning, S&OP, inventory, service levels, and planner workflows. We assess a model by whether it works in the process, not only by whether it is statistically sound.
System-agnostic
SAP IBP, OMP, custom pipelines, and complementary layers. The recommendation follows the bottleneck, not the tool.
The same applies to adjacent operational use cases whenever data, uncertainty, process impact, and feasibility need to be assessed together.
Process
How an initial sparring engagement works
Initial consultation
You describe your question and its context. We explore and structure it: What decision is coming up? Where is the suspected difficulty? What information will the technical deep dive require? No slide deck needed.
Expert Sparring · 90 minutes
We listen, ask questions, challenge assumptions, and put things into perspective: Where is the real bottleneck? Which risks are being overlooked? And what would we do next in your position?
Written assessment
You receive our assessment in writing so that you can stand behind it internally, along with an honest answer as to whether further support is needed.
